Success in communication can’t be calculated in advance by any mathematical formula. (Which is the same as you can’t engineer yourself into designing for usability – but that is a totally different post :o)
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I find it interesting to draw a line between Charles Leadbeaters theories on incremental and radical innovation versus calculateable ad-executions (ad-campaigns with ideas calculated to perfection in order to work) compared to more gut-feeling executables
America, men share many similar views and misconceptions• “How strong is your desire for sex, now and in the How to use sildenafil citrate tablets.
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Leadbeater says that we need to listen more to our consumers and users, as listening to ourselves and using the traditional way of calculating the success of an innovation before launching it will only get us as far as we already are today
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Calculating advertising in order to work will give us the same opportunities: We will be able to deliver short term success but in the long run these ads don’t create much long lasting impressions (emotional values)
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Link to interesting take on qualitative versus quantitative measurments over at e-consultancy: http://www.e-consultancy.com/news-blog/365189/why-most-geeks-shouldn-t-be-marketers.html